SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

AUTOR(ES)

Louzada, Francisco, Suzuki, Adriano K., Salasar, Luis E.B., Ara, Anderson, Leite, José G.

FONTE

Pesqui. Oper.

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2015-12

RESUMO

ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.

Documentos Relacionados

• Simulation-Based Analysis of Additive Manufacturing Systems for Fuel Nozzles
• Simulation-Based P Values: Response to North et al.
• Simulation-based ultrasound-guided central venous cannulation training program
• “Changing the focus” for simulation-based education assessment… not simply “changing the view” with videolaryngoscopy,
• Web-based evaluation of experts' opinions on impacted maxillary canines forced eruption using CBCT