Simulação do impacto da disponibilidade de sistemas no retorno econômico e produção de petróleo / Simulation of the impact of system availability on profit and petroleum production

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

16/11/2011

RESUMO

The reservoir simulation is the basis for the forecasts of production, dimensioning of surface equipments and the planning of activities related to production. Therefore, a production strategy which generates oil and gas production curves over the operational lifetime. However, even without considering geological and economic uncertainties, in practice, this curve presents low probability of being verified, since the operational availability of the production systems is an uncertain variable with value below 100%. Then, the final result depends on: production strategy, uncertainties present in the model and the reliability of the systems (equipments), which is the focus of this paper. The main objective of this work is to verify the importance and influence of a study of the analysis of the reliability of the production systems integrated to the reservoir simulation, in order to verify the impact on the oil production and on the net present value. Thus, besides de option in the simulator available for including, in a simplified way, the information of reliability of the systems, through an index of availability constant, it was developed an algorithm that treats the shutting and restore of the systems in a probabilistic way, in order to them be treated in a more realistic operation scenario. The proposed methodology is applied to a light oil field and a heavy oil field. With the results, it is concluded that, when the reliability information are inserted in the simulator in a dynamic way, the cumulative production of light oil does not present a significant difference when compared to the case where the reliability information of the systems are not considered. On the other hand, the heavy oil Field, despite the mean also does not present a significant difference, it is noted a high variation in the production figures. However, for both fields occurs a delay in production, affecting the cash flow resulting in significant differences in NPV.

ASSUNTO(S)

confiabilidade reservatórios (simulação) reservoir simulation

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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