REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND COMMODITY PRICES: RELATION IDENTIFIED USING CHANGES OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME / CÂMBIO REAL E PREÇOS DE COMMODITIES: RELAÇÃO IDENTIFICADA ATRAVÉS DE MUDANÇA DE REGIME CAMBIAL

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2003

RESUMO

Using Rigobons (2001) identification method for simultaneous equations models, based on the heteroskedasticity of the structural shocks, we analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and commodity prices for specific countries. Instead of the traditional approach of the commodity currency literature, we allow for endogenous effects of the exchange rates on the commodity prices, and we work with series that span two exchange rate regimes. From the results of some simulations, we also find out that the lack of assumptions about the stationarity of the series, close to the unity root, do not harm the conclusions of the empirical exercise. In spite of some caveats, the results of the empirical investigation suggest that the real exchange rate of Brazil should appreciate in response to a rise in the prices of its most important export commodities. However, the elasticity of the commodity prices to the exchange rate can not be considered different from zero, implicating that the country does not have much market power in the trade of these commodities. For New Zealand, the evidence indicates that exchange rate variations are important for the determination of the commodity prices, although the impact of commodity prices on the exchange rate is statistically equal to zero.

ASSUNTO(S)

heterocedasticidade de choques estruturais heteroskedasticity of the structural shocks taxa de cambio commodity currency commodities prices precos de commodities exchange rate commodity currency

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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