Precipitação pluvial e temperatura do ar no Estado de São Paulo: periodicidades, probabilidades associadas, tendências e variações climáticas / Rainfall and air temperature series of the State of São Paulo, Brazil: periodicities, associated probabilities, trends, and climate variations

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

The socio-economic relevance of São Paulo State agribusiness, and the vulnerability of agriculture atmospheric events indicate the need for constant study of the dynamics of the climate system of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The propose of this work was to study the statistics of time series of rainfall (PRE), maximum air temperature (Tmax), and minimum air temperature (Tmin) of the State of São Paulo. The probability of occurrence of these data and presences of periodicity, trends, and climate variations, on the time series, were investigated. The study was carried out considering annual, monthly, and absolute time scales. This last scale refers to the largest and to the smallest air temperature daily value, observed each year, (Tmaxabs and Tminabs, respectively). The absolute time scale also refers to the largest daily rainfall amount, observed each year (Preabs). Time series analysis, parametric and non parametric methods were applied to PRE, Tmax and Tmin data of nine weather stations. The highest significance levels of increasing trends were detected in both annual and monthly Tmin series. These climate alterations were more severe in the regions of Campinas, Cordeirópolis, Ribeirão Preto and, especially, Ubatuba (coastal region of the state). For Tmin series from Monte Alegre do Sul and Pindorama, trends were mostly statistically non significant. In spite of adopting the same period of analysis, 1948 to 2007, it was not possible to find a concomitance/similarity in the temporal variability of Tmin analyzed series. This spatial incoherence indicates the presence of important local forcing on air temperature data. The climate alterations observed in Tmax series was, in general, much less significant than those observed in Tmin series. The most important feature of the PRE series is the high temporal variability. For the weather stations in the mainland, it was verified shifts to the right in the PRE probabilities distributions associated with the most recent years. This temporal increase on rainfall amounts is mainly observed in May. For the Ubatuba PRE series, shifts to the left, in the probabilities distributions associated with the last 36 years, were found. For the absolute time scale, increasing trends were detected only in Pindorama Preabs time series and Ubatuba Tmin time series. No important periodicity was found in any of the analyzed time series. However, the local wavelet power spectrum (WPS) higher peaks, for monthly and absolute Tmax series, are concomitant with the most severe drought event described in scientific literature of the State of São Paulo. The non coincidence of the Tmax and Tmin WPS peaks, associated with the different temporal variability of those series, allows us to infer that those variables are influenced at a different way by the climate forcing that modulates the climate system of the State of São Paulo.

ASSUNTO(S)

precipitação atmosférica mudança climática chuva análise de séries temporais aquecimento global climate change global warming temperatura. time series.

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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