Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes
Sammis, C. G.
National Academy of Sciences
We review the “critical point” concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called “finite-time singularities.” The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress.
ACESSO AO ARTIGOhttp://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=128568
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