PDE models associated to fuzzy logic ans statistical methods in the treatment of uncertainties : an application on food-and-mooth disease / Modelos de EDP integrados a logica Fuzzy e metodos probabilisticos no tratamento de incertezas : uma aplicação a febre aftosa em bovinos

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

The foot-and-mouth disease is a viral, infectum contagious pathology, characterized for a scene full of inherent uncertainties, resultants of the influence of social, economic and environmental factors related to the transmission process, that can occur for direct and indirect means. In Epidemiology, great part of the uncertainties are treated either by the Theory of Probabilities or by Fuzzy Logic Theory, depending on the nature, in accordance with the type of uncertainty which can be either deriving of the randomness or coming from the subjectivity. The integrated use of models involving Partial Differential Equations (PDE), Fuzzy Theory and Probabilistic in the treatment of the two categories of uncertainties, simultaneously, is still very incipient. Aiming to contribute to the growth of existing studies in this area, we propose an integrated model, involving PDE Models, Fuzzy Models and Stochastic Models, in order to study the space and secular dynamics of these epidemiological phenomena, whose uncertainties are important for their evolution. To do so, the foot-and-mouth disease in bovines was taken overcome as our study s object and we elaborated a SIR model involving EDP to study its space-weather evolution with uncertain parameters of diffusion and transmission. Due the uncertainties these parameters had been estimated using Rule-Based Fuzzy Systems (RBFS). The linguistic variables of the RBFSs presented uncertainties of random nature, which were treated by random models. For computational results, we coupling several models, using the method of finite elements for the space discretization and Cranck-Nicolson for time discretization, toolbox fuzzy for Fuzzy Models and Mount Carlo for Random Models, all in the same algorithm constructed in the environments Matlab and Fortran

ASSUNTO(S)

metodo de monte carlo monte carlo method equações diferenciais parciais finite elements method logica difusa - congressos foot-and-mouth disease febre aftosa fuzz logic partial differential equations metodo de elementos finitos

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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