O Nível Ótimo das Reservas Internacionais: evidências para o Brasil.
Gilmar Luís Lang
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
The objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate as a classic boarding of the mensuration of the optimal level of the international reserves of a country, the FJs model or buffer stock, is appropriate for the Brazilian case, as well as considering an alteration of the model, through of the substitution of one of the variables of the original model. After revision of the literature and theory on the establishment of the adequate level of the international reserves of the countries, with focus especially in the FJs model, this study presents revision of this model, without, however, to limit it. In the sequence, it is considered the modification of the FJs model, for substitution of one of its variables. The objective of the alteration is to avoid spurious regressions, therefore the others kept variables had revealed not stationary, and it determined the necessity of cointegration tests, a powerful alternative to those derivatives of the simple analysis of time series. The changed of the variable extended the perception of risk of the market and is compatible with the economic theory, therefore the stock exchange index of a country has the capacity to represent, of synthetic and objective way, several market perceptions, among it the country risk, the health of its economy, its politics for the internal interest rate and the exchange rate. It improved the previsibility of the adequate level of the international reserves, for the case of Brazil.
reservas internacionais modelo buffer stock ibovespa international reserves ibovespa. desenvolvimento econômico gestão econômica de negócios bancos centrais relações econômicas internacionais optimal level economia buffer stock model banco central (brasil)
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