O BOOM DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA: HOUVE DUTCH DISEASE?

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The economy of Brazil and some developing countries is strongly influenced by the industry of natural resources exploitation, such as mining, agriculture and livestock. In economies with these characteristics the occurrence of market failure appointed as Dutch disease (DD) is speculated in certain circumstances. Thus, the proof of the hypothesis of the existence of this "disease" in Brazilian territory, caused by the boom of the iron ore production, is the main objective of this work. The literature review on the Dutch classic case was through the study of literature exists on the DD in the Netherlands. Studies concerning the industrialization of the economy and neutralization of this market failure have been conducted to better understand the issue. The theoretical framework was completed with the presentation of theories about the main determinants of exchange rate during the Bretton Woods regime and during the eight years of the series set for analysis (2000-2007). This study presents, compares, analyzes and discusses data on the Netherlands to remove doubts about the existence of the DD market failure. Subsequent data on the Brazilian economy, especially the Balance of Payments, fluctuation of exchange rates, export prices and also the quantities of iron ore were collected. The analysis of these data had the objective of verifying the impact of the mineral boom in the Brazilian commoditization of national exports as well as the optimization of Real in the period. This analysis is proposed to eliminate doubts on the existence of the DD market failure caused by the boom of iron ore production and exports, rejecting its existence in the country through this commodity. In its last part a comparison between the economic context when the Dutch disease happened and the possible occurring in Brazil was done showing, based on theories that discourse on the financial market, the reasons that a market failure as DD has currently fewer possibilities to occur. The work does not endorse the line of research that discourse on hidden barriers to diversification of the domestic industry and acceleration of economic growth in Brazil. On the other hand it gives responsibility to the complexity of the global financial system, the depth and sophistication of the Brazilian financial system, and also the diversification of the Brazilian exports to affirm that the negative effects of Dutch disease are not relevant in the country.

ASSUNTO(S)

dutch disease minÉrio de ferro economia brasileira engenharia de minas

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