NÍVEL ÓTIMO DE RESERVAS INTERNACIONAIS PARA ECONOMIAS EMERGENTES / OPTIMUM LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES
JULIANA TERREIRO SALOMAO
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
Over the past 20 years, economies have increased their levels of international reserves at a rapid pace. Global reserves went from approximately one trillion dollars in 1990, to over five trillion dollars in 2006. This trend can also be observed in Brazil, especially over the past two years, when the stock of reserves increased from about 60 billion dollars by the end of 2005 to more than 180 billion dollars by the end of 2007. In this study, we make a cost-benefit analysis of international reserves, taking into account its role in mitigating both the probability of a crisis, and the cost of a crisis once it happens. Our results show that higher reserves, represented by the Reserves/Short Term External Debt ratio, are significant in decreasing the cost and probability of a crisis. Furthermore, we find that the levels of reserves accumulated by the majority of the emerging economies analyzed are optimum for reasonable values of cost of crisis and cost of reserves. However, the Brazilian case is an exception, since the reserves accumulated in the past two years seem excessive, not being explained by the model estimated.
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