Modelo para a análise de risco econômico aplicado ao planejamento de projetos de irrigação para cultura do cafeeiro. / Economic risk analysis model for coffee irrigation project design.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2001

RESUMO

This study shows the application of an economic risk model to help the decision makers on planning process for coffee irrigation projects. The model was built in Excel sheet using Visual Basic Macro and the simulation process used Monte Carlo method. It was used data from two irrigated coffee farms located at Lavras, MG (13.5ha) and Araguari, MG (98.4ha). Three different yield technology levels (2,500 , 3,600 , 4,800kg/ha), and six irrigation treatments were analyzed. The model showed good efficiency in planning and economic risk determination. The methods used by the model to determine reference evapotranspiration (ETo), soil water balance, energy and water cost showed good results and enabled to determine the best economic option. An application of the model permits the following conclusions: - It was not economically viable to produce coffee using the 2,400kg/ha yield technology level at Lavras farm. The same technology level was viable when the coffee was irrigated all the year for Araguari farm; - The 3,600kg/ha and 4,800kg/ha were economic viable for both farms and they were independent on irrigation; - Different sceneries were analyzed and the worst scenerie was the yield loss for two following years. Even in the worst scenerie, the 3,600kg/ha yield technology level showed economical viability with irrigation along all the year; - Variable cost was the most significant cost in the coffee production. The energy and water cost represented 3.8% for Lavras farm and 5.0% for Araguari farm. The irrigation cost was in a range 10.3% to 29.7% for Lavras farm and 7.0% to 19.4% for Araguari farm.

ASSUNTO(S)

modelo matemático irrigation coffee risk analysis irrigação model café análise de risco tomada de decisão

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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