Modelling and evaluation of industrial plants useful life extension / Modelagem e avaliação da extensão da vida útil de plantas industriais

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

During the useful life of an industrial plant, the failure occurrence follows an exponential distribution. However, the aging process in an industrial plant generates an increase of the failure number. The failure probability is a rating for the maintenance stopping process. In this paper, an statistical method for the assessment of the failure probability as a function of the operational time, based on the non-Markovian theory, is presented. Two maintenance conditions are addressed: In the first one, the old parts are utilized, after the repair this condition being called as good as old; in the second one the old parts are substituted by brand new ones this condition being called as good as new. A non-Markovian system with variable source term is modeled by using hyperbolic partial differential equations. The system of equations is solved using the Lax-Wendroff and fractional-step numerical schemes. The two methods achieve to approximately the same results, due to the smooth behavior of the solution. The main conclusion is that the system collapse depends essentially on the initial state of the Markov chain.

ASSUNTO(S)

industry - design and plans - reliability processos markovianos indústria localização de falhas (engenharia) probabilidades failure probability non-markovian theory indústria projetos e plantas confiabilidade reliability (engineering) stochastic processes industry - fault location (engineering) - probabilities markov processes markovian theory probabilidade de falha teoria não-markoviana processo estocástico indústria manutenção e reparos industry - maintenance and repair teoria markoviana markov, processos de confiabilidade (engenharia)

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