MODELAGEM DINÂMICA PARA SIMULAÇÃO DE MUDANÇAS NA COBERTURA FLORESTAL DAS SERRAS DO SUDESTE E CAMPANHA MERIDIONAL DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL / DYNAMIC MODELING FOR CHANGES SIMULATIONS IN THE FOREST COVER AT THE SERRAS DO SUDESTE AND CAMPANHA MERIDIONAL FROM RIO GRANDE DO SUL STATE

AUTOR(ES)

Ana Caroline Paim Benedetti

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

Significant processes of conversion in the land use patterns have been verified in the State of Rio Grande do Sul due to the incorporation of forest areas during the last years. In this conception, this work aims to establish the methodological guidelines to analyze the dynamics of these patterns in the Serras do Sudeste and Campanha Meridional, which are micro regions located in the southern part of the State. Thematic maps from the years 2000, 2004 and 2008 were elaborated through the product NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from the MODIS sensor in a way to relate this index to the land use classes. The maps that we elaborated were used to drive a dynamic model, which made it possible to quantify, through the use of Markov model, the conversion rates between classes. The simulation designed using the probabilistic method weighs-of-evidence, and allowed to assess the role of influential variables in the forest cover changes of both micro regions. The main results are simulations based on the paradigm of Cellular Automata (CA), in which the forest areas are quantified and spatially distributed until the year 2016. The predictions modeled, based on the considered variables, indicate that the forest will expand over spaces previously allocated to agricultural activities and to extensive grazing of cattle, either with the introduction of exotic species or by means of regeneration. The forest cover in Serras do Sudeste will increase from 8,6% to 16,2% by the end of the period. In Campanha Meridional the increase will be from 11,1% to 12,5% and, in both micro regions, the expansion will tend to stabilize within the observed period.

ASSUNTO(S)

sensoriamento remoto ndvi remote sensing modelagem dinâmica matriz de transição recursos florestais e engenharia florestal ndvi transition matrix dynamic modeling

Documentos Relacionados

• Uso do produto MOD13Q1 do sensor Modis para análise temporal e mapeamento das florestas nas Serras do Sudeste e Campanha Meridional do Rio Grande do Sul
• Detecção de mudanças no uso e na cobertura do solo em uma série temporal de imagens da Região da Campanha do Rio Grande do Sul
• Land cover and conservation state of a region in the southern limit of the Atlantic Forest (River Maquiné Basin, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil)
• STOCHASTIC MODELS OF THE FORESTED LANDSCAPES DYNAMICS AND SCENARIO SIMULATION FOR THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL, BRAZIL, FROM 1988 TO 2020
• DYNAMIC MODELING OF LAND USE AND COVERAGE AT QUARTA COLÔNIA, RS