Model for the evaluation of the credit risk of Brazilian cities / Modelo para a avaliação do risco de crédito de municípios brasileiros

AUTOR(ES)

Ernesto Fernando Rodrigues Vicente

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2004

RESUMO

As many on public area as on private area, the financing needs are relative to investment decisions. For each monetary unit to be invested there is need to obtain funds to financing. When questions are made about this issues –financing needs- and those questions are associated to municipal finances, one hiatus appears at this moment, wich there wasn’t studies or researches to be able to provide a reply or a solution on the subject to measure the brazilians municipal credit risk. The search for this solution is the subject of the present work. The bibliographic research provide the theoretical base, as many in finances and credit, as econometrics modeling. The bankrupt modeling analysis applied to companies, contributed to orient the templates that could be tested and possibly oriented to municipal credit risk analysis. A special Law of Fiscal Responsibility (LRF), is the first rule to begin the responsible management process, and probably, in the near future, the obligation of disclosure the financial statements, and independent audits that may be the mandatory components on municipal management, as well as the adoption or acceptance of municipal ratings contributed to the motivation to development of one model of municipal credit risk. After the attainment of brazilian cities financial information, from the official National Treasure site, demographic data (available in CD of Brazilian Institut of Geography &Statistics’ database of municipal information), and about expertise’s judgments on the subject of concept in relation to credit risk presented for many cities, about the treatment of these information and the creation of a database that grant the full integration of selected information, applying the discriminant function analysiys to the database obtained, resulted a statistic model that hit a target level with approximatly 70%.

ASSUNTO(S)

lei de responsabilidade fiscal rating de municípios finanças municipais public management administration municipal finance modelagem estatística municipal rating credit risk of counties administração pública gerencial risco de crédito de municípios statistical modeling law of fiscal responsibility

Documentos Relacionados

• Measures of credit risk: an aplication of the creditrisk+ model to financing of farm and agribusiness activities.
• Quantificação do risco de crédito: um estudo de caso utilizando o modelo Creditrisk+
• QUANTIFICAÇÃO DO RISCO DE CRÉDITO: UMA ABORDAGEM UTILIZANDO O MODELO ESTRUTURAL DE MERTON
• CREDIT RISK MODEL IN B2B RELATIONS
• Mensuração de risco de portfólio para carteiras de crédito a empresas