Metas de inflação numa economia pós-keynesiana / Inflation targeting in a post-keynesian economics

AUTOR(ES)

André Luís Mota dos Santos

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

16/09/2010

RESUMO

This dissertation analyses the compatibility of the inflation target system with an economic structure characterized as a post Keynesian one. This structure presents three elements: an IS relation; a relation similar to the Phillips curve but with a post Keynesian content; and an adaptive process of the formation of expectations for the inflation rate. Monetary and incomes policies react to the inflation gap in relation to an inflation target and/or to the output gap in relation to a product target. These reaction functions to monetary and incomes policies close the system and different reaction functions structure different dynamic systems. Expectations depend on past inflation rates and on the inflation target rate: they are adapted in each period, considering the gap between the expected inflation value and the weighted average between the actual inflation and the inflation target. Depending on the gap or gaps that make up each reaction function, the combination of policies can be classified as post Keynesian, orthodox or as a mix of elements from both orientations. A combination of reaction functions capable of generating a convergence of the product and the inflation gaps in relation to the respective targets, in such a way that each policy remains independent from the other, has some degree of compatibility with the structure of the economy. The convergence capacity of each system gauges the compatibility degree between the policies and the structure of the economy. To reach product and inflation targets most models show that the incomes policy must at least react to the inflation gap, whilst the monetary policy must at least react to the product gap. A conventional or institutional character emerges when the inflation targets system succeeds. This guarantees the maintenance of confidence in the process of expectations formation.

ASSUNTO(S)

política de preços e salários economia keynesiana inflação política monetária keynesian economics incomes policy inflation monetary policy

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