Mensuração de risco de portfólio para carteiras de crédito a empresas / Risk measuring of corporate credit portfolios

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2005

RESUMO

The evolution of credit risk management techniques, which has occurred in the financial market in recent years, has led to the development of several methods to measure the credit risk of portfolios. The credit risk models that became popular in the international banking industry have limited application in Brazil due to the characteristics of our credit market. The objective of this research is to propose a set of procedures in order to measure the risk of bankscorporate credit portfolios, considering the actual data available in the Brazilian credit market. The study was performed in two steps. In the first one, a credit scoring model was developed, using the statistical method of logistic regression. The model was based on a sample of companies classified either as solvent or insolvent. The variables that represent the financial situation of the companies are indices calculated from the financial statements. In the second step, the procedures defined to measure the credit portfolio risk were presented. In the proposed approach, the company losses are considered individually and then the results are consolidated to obtain the total loss of the portfolio. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, thousands of scenarios are generated in which the future financial situation of the companies belonging to the portfolio are considered. The scenarios generated give rise to possible loss values regarding the companies individually and the portfolio as a whole. The process is illustrated by applying the model to a hypothetical portfolio built based on the data of bankscredit portfolios in Brazil. The model generates the loss distribution of the credit portfolio, from which measurements to quantify the risk of the portfolio, and the economic capital to be allocated by the financial institution can be obtained. The results indicate that the proposed model is an alternative to measure the credit risk of companies in the Brazilian market and highlight the importance of the application of credit risk portfolio modeling when performing risk managing in financial institutions.

ASSUNTO(S)

risk management - models administração de portfólio crédito credit instituições financeiras portfolio management administração de risco - modelos financial institution

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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