Macroeconomics and agricultural commodities prices / Macroeconomia e preços de commodities agrícolas

AUTOR(ES)

Andréa Ferraz de Arruda

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

This work resumed the behavioral analysis of commodities prices in agriculture after a decade during which the topic drew little attention from researchers. The results found show a moderate role, but not indispensable, played by the macroeconomic variables in the non-anticipated variations of their prices. The exchange rate impacts directly the prices of goods traded in foreign markets and indirectly those with which they compete in production and consumption. The interest rate is a component of storage costs, and, therefore, if it is raised, for example, it increases them, so a higher volume of commodities is offered to the market and their prices tend to drop. It is also known that the interest rate affects the level of economic activity and, thus, the countriesrevenue. Analysis of vectorial auto-regression was utilized to measure the impacts and the importance of shocks in these macroeconomic variables on corn and soybean prices in Brazil. It was verified indispensable effects of interest on these prices and of the interest rate on the soybean price. The revenue - measured by the GDP - did not show relevance, it might not have captured the effect of the revenue or because of the insignificant variation of the GDP in the period analyzed. Even though the interest has proven to be useful to mitigate the inflationary impacts derived from exacerbated increases of commodities prices, the evidences point to an elevated exogenous component of these prices, which can be interpreted as a result of the importance of sectoral factors in these markets (such as technology and productivity, climate and demand oscillations). Thus, as far as price instability is concerned, the use of instruments of storage and credit is required to control it.

ASSUNTO(S)

macroeconomics commodities. macroeconomia bolsa de mercadorias prices preços agrícolas.

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