Lobby e protecionismo no Brasil (2001-2005) : uma análise econométrica à luz da Teoria da Proteção Endógena

AUTOR(ES)

Thiago Veiga Marzagão

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

This work attempts to: (i) explain why the different industries of Brazilian economy enjoy different degrees of trade protection; and (ii) explain how sectoral demands for protection are mediated by prevailing institutions. As regards the first point, the hypothesis under test is that protection degrees vary because industries differ in the amount of protection they demand and in their ability to compel government to meet that demand. As for the second point, there are no ex ante hypothesis; we just intend to identify, using an exploratory approach, what institutions are more amenable to pressure from protectionist lobbies. The theoretical framework is the Endogenous Protection Theory, which treats protection as a commodity transacted between politicians (suppliers) and domestic producers (demanders). The method applied is regression analysis. The response variables measure the amount of trade protection received by each Brazilian industry across different institutional frameworks. The explanatory variables measure these industries demand for protection and organizational capability. Regressors are the same across models so the different results can be ascribed to the different institutional frameworks. These results do not allow us to conclude that protection demand and ability to press government are the main explanations for Brazils protection structure. Certain institutional frameworks seem to allow government a degree of decisional autonomy, so government is able to resist (to some extent) sectoral pressures. In concret terms, regressions results suggest that trade policy is more constrained by interest groups when: (i) there are explicit channels of public-private communication; (ii) the state department coordinating the decisionmaking process is guided by protectionist beliefs; and (iii) the decisionmaking process comprehends not only Brazil but also the other Mercosur member states.

ASSUNTO(S)

política comercial relacoes i?internacionais, bilaterais e multilaterais interest groups grupos de pressão trade policy protectionism

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