JustificaÃÃo de investimentos em tecnologias avanÃadas de manufatura: um framework para a avaliaÃÃo da opÃÃo de esperar, sob a Ãtica das opÃÃes reais

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

Evaluating capital investment projects for the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT) is a critical task faced by manufacturing managers. Due to the normally high levels of risk and uncertainty involved, the traditional investment appraisal techniques are often insufficient and must be complemented by sophisticated evaluation methods. Since the 1980ths when the microelectronic paradigm was adopted, this issue has been discussed between engineers, economists and industrial accountants. The attentions are focused on the flexibility that the automatic control systems provide to manufacturing processes. From a study on the AMTs investment justification processes, it was verified that the application of the Real Options Theory in complementation of the Net Present Value (NPV) technique generates precious information for decision making. The option to wait, in particular, may be valued and adopted avoiding the equivocated rejection of a potential project and the risk of a too early decision. This dissertation presents a framework based on the Real Option Theory for the evaluation of investments in AMTs considering the option to wait. The methodology adopted includes the NPV evaluation process, Monte Carlo simulation and the application of the ROT for the valuation of the option to wait. The framework was applied to a hypothetic practical case and it was verified that if adopted the option to wait, the company can use the earned time to act proactively. It may look forward to have new incentives from government, reduce the expected costs and add extra value to its products and services

ASSUNTO(S)

teoria das opÃÃes reais investment tecnologia avanÃada da manufatura (amt) engenharia de producao investimento tecnologia technology amt analysis

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

Documentos Relacionados