Influence of uncertaities in the decision process: priorization of improvement projects. / Influência da incerteza no processo de decisão: priorização de projetos de melhoria.

AUTOR(ES)

Marcos Coitinho

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

This study describes an experiment about the definition of portfolio of improvement projects in an industry of capital goods, which had until recently been prioritized based mainly on legislation demand and technical complexity. It was proposed to increase the criteria numbers including: market image, market share, strategic alignment, launch time to new products. To handle several criteria with focus quantitative and qualitative aspects was necessary introduced two multcriterial methods, namely, analytical hierarchic process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer AHP process (DS-AHP). The first referred method is used to manage the relative importance of alternatives regarding the fore mentioned criteria based on weights attributed to structure hierarchical levels. The second referred method also uses AHP platform to enable ignorance measurement based on subjective probabilities. Results from direct application of the methods in this specific industry are commented. It was observed that the decision makers have some objections with respect to the AHP process, in the sense that there were judgment inconsistencies which required additional evaluation of the candidate solutions, what was seen as somewhat tiresome. The main advantages which was emphasize by decision makers refers to the ease of application in corporate environmental . As for the DS - AHP process, the possibility of considering believes in a structured way was felt as more appropriated to the real decision process, which effectively involves uncertainties. In this way, the elected alternative can be clearly understood as most probably - and not certainly - the best. Also the DS-AHP process was seen as more directly conducive to the final results in comparison with the AHP process.

ASSUNTO(S)

analytical hierarchy process (ahp) multi-criteria decision methods gestão de portfólio de projetos métodos multicritérios de tomada de decisão analytical hierarchy process (ahp) projects portfolio management dempster-shafer/ahp dempster-shafer/ahp

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