Incorporação da variabilidade dos teores para análise de risco de recursos minerais e sequenciamento de lavra

AUTOR(ES)

Cássio Diedrich

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2012

RESUMO

Mining industry continuously investigates proper reconciliation procedures and techniques for mapping possible risks in ore recovery and mine planning. A case study at a Brazilian copper mine investigates the adequacy of using simulated grades for defining high risk areas affecting mine planning and the defined mineral reserves. Conditional simulations were used to derive multiple copper grade models within a typical ore-body of the deposit and compared these models against the real production data (reconciliation). The comparison allowed a better understanding of grade variability and helped in defining a more consistent mine plan. The range of values derived from the simulations mapped areas of significant uncertainty affecting the pushback¿s plan. Risk analysis were conducted for the final pit definition by comparing the projected final pit limit and mining sequence against the simulated models of copper grade, assessing the operational impacts on key economical factors (mine net present value, discounted cash flow). Several final pit limits were generated for various simulated grade block models and compared to the previously pit planned using the ordinary kriging grade block model. Also, it was defined a risk scale using the conditional simulated models and the ordinary kriged values (commonly used for budget and mill feed reference) in order to minimize grade variations ensuring less risk on completion of the metal production goals on mine planning. This approach considering the risk for the mining sequencing was used on the annual mining plan and compared to the real production and to the traditional approach. The results highlighted possible risks associated with the operational pit limit and demonstrated the benefits of using risk analysis as a tool to preview and review the final pit limits and mine planning, helping to make better strategic decisions by the copper mine management related to the technical factors and economical indicators.

ASSUNTO(S)

lavra : planejamento mineral resources conditional simulation reconciliation análise de risco mining sequencing mineral reserves simulação numérica

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