Incertezas na simulação hidrológica em pequenas bacias por meio do modelo SWAT

AUTOR(ES)

Venzon, Pedro Thiago, Pinheiro, Adilson, Kaufmann, Vander

FONTE

RBRH

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

08/11/2018

RESUMO

ABSTRACT Hydrological modelling is one of the main tools in water resources management application. However, several factors make it difficult to extrapolate the estimated parameters in basins with large contribution areas to smaller basins. This research analysed the uncertainties of flow simulations in small basins. The methodological process involves the application of the hydrological simulation model, the soil and water assessment tools (SWAT) to the basin of the Concordia River (30.74 km2) and the Itajai River basin (15,000 km 2). First, six different scenarios of the hydrological response units’ (HRUs) discretisation were compared in the Concordia River basin calibration and validation, evaluating the number of HRUs influencing the small river basin simulation. Then, the model parameters for the Itajai River basin were calibrated in 12 fluviometric stations. Subsequently, the calibrated parameter variation trend was determined through the formulation of regression equations. These equations were developed from the correlation among the physical indices of each fluviometric station and their values. In the present study, the HRUs’ discretisation indicated there is no need to increase the number of HRUs when the goal is to represent the water flow peaks in the small river basin. The results obtained with the application of the regression equation showed the compactness coefficient (kC) could generate up to 42.1% of variation in the mean flow and 82.7% in Q95 of the sub-basins. Therefore, the use of regression equations can help reduce uncertainties generated during parameter calibration.

ASSUNTO(S)

hydrological modeling space scale water resources management

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