Impactos econômicos de políticas de mudança climática na economia brasileira: um estudo a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável / Economic impacts of policies on climate change mitigation in the Brazilian economy: a study based on a computable general equilibrium model

AUTOR(ES)

Jonathan Gonçalves da Silva

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

The objective of this dissertation is to estimate the economic impacts of climate policy scenarios for Brazil. More specifically, it is intended through a computable general equilibrium model to see how some economic variables respond to the simulation of some policies to mitigate climate change by Brazil. For this purpose, it was used the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model EPPA, from the MIT, which is a dynamic-recursive model, multi-regional that represents the world economy. The results reveal that the introduction of the targets for reducing emissions from 2015, allows an expressive reduction of GHG emissions in the country, notably the reduction from deforestation. Regarding the level of economic activity showed that the sacrifice being made in terms of GDP loss was not significant, which can be explained by an energy-intensive sources of clean energy. In terms of welfare, it was observed that the inclusion of the targets for reducing deforestation, such as those represented by the policy CP1 brought modest losses in welfare for Brazil, namely the effort to frame the goals of Copenhagen is beneficial, because the loss of welfare will be relatively small if the country can continue the pace of reduction in emissions in 2020.

ASSUNTO(S)

gees ghg mitigation policies políticas de mitigação economia economics

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