Growth in external restriction: an analysis using techniques of dynamic systems / Crescimento sob restrição externa: uma análise utilizando técnicas de dinâmica de sistemas

AUTOR(ES)

Fabricio Marques Santos

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

The matter to be treated in this work is the relationship between economic growth and foreign restriction. The objective is to build a macroeconomic simulation model to serve as a tool for analysis, though modest,of the relationship between the components of Aggregate Demand and the variables of the Balance of Payments of the Brazilian economy in the period 1947-2006. The model is based on the Principle of Effective Demand, formalized initially by Keynes and Kalecki, through which Thirlwall (1979) derived a general result of how the restriction of the Balance of Payments limits growth of an economy in the long run. The Theory of System Dynamics forms the methodological basis for addressing this theme. This is a theory of modeling and simulation of complex systems, and its use will allow to treat the variables to be examined in an integrated way. At the end of the work it will be presented some simulations with the goal of identifying the impact of alternative scenarios (with change of parameters and initial conditions) on the growth rate of the economy in the period 1947-2006.

ASSUNTO(S)

principle of effective demand metodologia de simulação theory of system dynamics simulation methodology princípio da demanda efetiva restrição externa foreign restriction teoria de dinâmica de sistemas

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