Global climatic changes, a cse study of air temperature variation and its impacts in the municipal district of Ubatuba, north coasth of São Paulo / Mudanças climáticas globais, um estudo de caso da variação da temperatura do ar e seus impactos no município de Ubatuba, litoral Norte de São Paulo

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

02/06/2009

RESUMO

This work aims to provide a forecast of the air temperature for future climatic scenarios with an estimation of sea level rise and its environmental consequences in the municipality of Ubatuba. The adopted methodology is based on the use of air temperature simulated data from HadCM3 Model from Hadley Center from United Kingdom (from 2000 until 2099) considering two scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes, namely A2 scenario (pessimistic) and B1 scenario (optimistic). The estimates of elevation of the sea level of 124 and 268 cm for 2050 and 2100, respectively was realized based on tidal observations in Ubatuba in the period from 1954 up to 1993. As result it is estimated an increase of the air temperature by 5.3 ( 3.0)C for the A2 scenarious and by 3.4 ( 3.0)C to B1 case. Using data of topographyc profiles of 11 beaches in the region, it has been concluded that all these beaches will disappear by 2050.

ASSUNTO(S)

modelo hadcm3 cenários climáticos aquecimento global climatologia global warming climatic scenarios hadcm3 model

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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