Função de reação da política fiscal e intolerância da dívida: o caso brasileiro no período pós-real / Reaction Function of the Fiscal Policy and Debt Intolerance: The Brazilian Case in the Post-Real Period

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

Analyses of the sustainability of public debt across time in emerging countries are increasingly gaining in importance in the international economic debate, due to their importance for the evaluation of the macroeconomic policies of these countries. Following the June 1994 monetary reform that did away with hyperinflation, a major fiscal imbalance came to light in the Brazilian economy as a sub-product, with the debt/GDP ratio following a monotonically rising path and exceeding the 50% level. This is considered extremely dangerous for an emerging nation that is faced with debt intolerance. The aim of this study is to estimate a reaction function regarding Brazils fiscal policy for the post-Real period, quantifying the relation between the consolidated public sectors primary results, the behavior of the debt/GDP ratio, institutions and debt intolerance, as well as evaluating the cyclical aspects of fiscal policies in Brazil. Additionally, a unit root test was carried out, with endogenous breakdown of the discounted net debt/GDP ratio, as well as co-integration tests, in order to evaluate the spend and tax hypothesis of Brazilian fiscal policy during the period in question. One of the prominent conclusions of this study is that the fiscal policy behaved in a unsustainable manner after the 1994 reform, and underscored by fiscal indiscipline, with revenue being the endogenous variable of the fiscal regime, characterized by a spend and tax system.

ASSUNTO(S)

sustentabilidade reaction function função de reação sustainability debt intolerance intolerância da dívida

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