Flood insurance model based on hydrological simulation as a flood risk management tool / Modelo de seguro para riscos hidrológicos com base em simulação hidráulico-hidrológica como ferramenta de gestão do risco de inundações

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

Recent disasters caused by extreme hydrological events, occurred in Brazilian cities, have exposed how fragile the current policies are to manage such situation. Often, a lack of resources is observed even for emergency actions, while structural actions commonly consist of palliative and punctual measures that do not promote real solutions considering the watershed sphere. To face the problem based on a risk-oriented approach instead of the traditional event-oriented approach represents an alternative that provides more efficient and sustainable solutions. Disaster risk management comprehends three time-oriented phases: before, during and after the extreme event, each phase focusing on the three risks components: hazard, vulnerability and exposition. As Brazils economy grows stronger and more stable, natural disaster insurance plays an important role as a risk transfer mechanism, promoting economic resilience in damaged areas. After the opening of the reinsurances market in 2007, Brazils challenge is to develop methodologies relating extreme events hazard with its corresponding damage and an insurance premium, in a way that the losses can be refunded in long term sceneries. The insurance model proposed in this work is based on the indexed insurance, where the refunds are linked to a weather variable - the maximum discharge. Hydrologic and hydraulic simulations were developed in order to generate risk maps and to quantify the damage related to floods with different return periods. Afterwards, a flood insurance model was simulated in order to obtain the optimal insurance premium sufficient to refund the expected damage for long term sceneries. A case study illustrates the method in a watershed where flood events are frequent due to urban occupation. The insurance coverage associated to each flood return period was examined and the results have shown that the methodology is suitable for the analysis of the flood insurances behavior. Reinsurance may be required to deal with extreme events with high return periods.

ASSUNTO(S)

mapas de risco de inundação flood risk management seguro-enchente simulação hidráulico-hidrológica gestão do risco de inundações flood risk maps flood insurance hydraulic-hydrological simulation

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