Evidências de causalidade entre desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro e crescimento econômico no Brasil / Evidence of causality between development of financial system and economic growth in Brazil

AUTOR(ES)

Vitor Januário Oliveira

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

Theories of economic growth have received constant attention, either theoretical or empirical study areas. In the latter, although not directly related to one of the factors of production, but their importance, have been given emphasis on the role of the financial system in support of sustained economic growth. From this perspective, the financial system would act as a great sponsor and an important broker, as that allows the trade relations are established by reducing costs and making resources are allocated more productively. Given the apparent importance of the financial system in generating economic growth, some studies have attempted to investigate causal relationships between these variables. Thus, this research contributes to this literature to empirically verify the causality relation between the development of the financial system and economic growth in Brazil from the period 1980 to 2008. Therefore, the use of methodologies such as coefficient analysis by principal component models and autoregressive VEC were used. The major contribution is the construction of more representative proxies of financial development for the Brazilian economy. First of all, these proxies were made from series of banking and stock market, where were found, in both of series, two representative coefficients. With this results obtained, we tried to develop the indexes only with the variables in the banking market and, subsequently, with the variables of the stock market with the meant to make the results more robust. The found results point to a causality in the sense of development of the financial system, be it by means of capitals market or bank market, to the economical growth, moving towards great part of the empiric literature and of encounter to the paper of the financial system defended for the economical literature.

ASSUNTO(S)

crescimento econômico sistema financeiro economic growth banking mercado acionário setor bancário causalidade crescimento e desenvolvimento economico financial system stock market causality

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