Evaluation of intensive production system of dairy goat by the method Monte Carlo / Avaliação econômica de um sistema de produção intensiva de caprinos leiteiros aplicando o método de Monte Carlo

AUTOR(ES)

Timótheo Souza Silveira

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

08/04/2011

RESUMO

The changes occurring in the world market after globalization, the advent of computing and communication technologies, are strongly the influence of agribusiness. The production processes and the management of rural enterprises suffered significant changes to survive increased competition. The opening of markets for commodities and the growing need for product differentiation affect the entire value chain. Cost accounting has been developing in recent years along with increased information needs for decision making. The connection of the production cost with the company s position is directly related to the market that the company is performing. The study aimed at the development of existing studies on the costs in the production of dairy goats confined to evaluating the economic potential and two costing methodologies. Along with the development of this study, we analyzed the business risk and potential points for decision-making producer and is based upon the analysis of Monte Carlo and technical-economic indicators. The initial result demonstrates the high cost and inefficiency of production, about the characteristics of the property. Analyzing the internal rate of return and NPV was found two different results demonstrating that the increased scale of production directly increases revenue. It was found that variation within the historical point of greatest influence in revenue is the change in animal inventory. Animal husbandry has a yield of 14% in a herd not stabilized, and as basic value of the animal to market. As for the costs it was found that forage and concentrate are the main negative influence on variable cost. However, the biological principles must be respected and a long-term planning is important for maintaining production / revenue. The cost of milk production corrected is $ 1.21. We conclude that the viability of the system installed today is made possible by the integration of systems and is only viable milk production.

ASSUNTO(S)

avaliacao de alimentos para animais sistema produtivo caprinocultura production cost goat production system custo de produção

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