Estudo de correlação entre valores de q de Tobin obtidos pelo método de Chung e Pruitt e por fluxo de caixa descontado / Study of correlation between the values of Tobins q obtained by the method of Chung and Pruitt and discounted cash flow

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The theory shows the Tobins q as a tool of high utility and high explanatory power in investment decisions, since the absolute value of q, itself, must express a strong meaning for the user. The usual technique of calculation of Tobins q, as described by Chung and Pruitt (1994) provides an assessment of the company using the market price in the denominator of the ratio, which is determined by the sum of the value of shares and debt to the price of day. An alternative way to calculate Tobins q could in theory be made by replacement of the market evaluation by an assessment by the method of discounted cash flow, because both techniques are not exclusive in seeking to estimate the value of companies. The goal of this thesis had the purpose to evaluate whether the assessment methods of companies would be equivalent in the determination of Tobins q using the test of correlation between results obtained by both techniques. The confirmation of the hypothesis of equality of results would be the determination of a high R2. If the equivalence of the methods were confirmed, the use of the indicator could be extended to companies even closed capital or to evaluate companies on condition of low efficiency of the market. Tests of correlation were made between values Tobins q established by the two techniques. A series of data was generated by the method of Chung and Pruitt (1994) was compared with nine sets of data collected by variants of the technique of discounted cash flow, representing the combination of three values of initial flow (NOPAT, FOCF and FCO) by three ways to design the future flows (no growth, with GDP growing and growing trend established by the accounting data). The series were also analyzed by three years and liquidity of the roles of companies. The results indicate that the methods are not equivalent, because in most cases the R2 was very low, less than 0.15. There were divergent values between groups of firms with higher and lower liquidity, which should be examined more carefully, they may indicate a differential use of accounting information in evaluating companies.

ASSUNTO(S)

avaliação de ativos valor de mercado q de tobin evaluation assets tobins q market value

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