ESTUDANDO FLUTUAÇÕES DA POTÊNCIA DA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA / STUDYING FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POTENCY OF MONETARY POLICY

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

Monetary policy in Brazil has been working, since 1999, under an inflation targeting regime, in which interest rates are the main instruments in achieving the targets. This dissertation studies the effect of monetary policy on the economy`s output and reasons for its fluctuations, through the estimation of an IS curve for Brazil. We find a significant effect of the real interest rate on output in a backward-looking IS curve. We then explain, using a theoretical model, variations in this effect as arising from efficiency gains in the financial intermediation activity. Using the trend over time of bank spreads as a measure of the efficiency of the lending activity, we test this hypothesis empirically, and find that the higher potency observed in the monetary policy on recent years is consistent with this explanation. Tests using fiscal variables do not find correlation between them and the potency of monetary policy.

ASSUNTO(S)

canal do credito credit channel curva is monetary policy is curve politica monetaria

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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