ESTIMAÇÃO DE EQUAÇÕES DE EXPORTAÇÕES POR SETORES: UMA INVESTIGAÇÃO SOBRE O IMPACTO DO CÂMBIO / ESTIMATION OF EXPORT EQUATIONS BY SECTORS: A RESEARCH ON EXCHANGE RATE IMPACT

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2003

RESUMO

The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of the exchange rate in several export sectors of the brazilian economy, throughout the use of uniequation econometric models. In particular, we make use of the autoregressive distributed lags model (ADL) to obtain the long run exchange rate elasticities. The short run dynamics is obtained by use of a model with error correction mechanism (ECM). We estimate six alternative forms for the export equations, which differ by the indicators of exchange rate (three) and world income (two) used. The elasticities estimated for the majority of the 18 export sectors investigated suggest the existence of a long run relation between exchange rate and quantum of exports. Nevertheless this impact is not substantial, given the small size of the elasticities coefficients. On the short run, the exchange rate impact was even less pronounced. In a nut shell, our study shows that, in Brazil, the growth of exports is not very much affected by the exchange rate, although other factors have been found to have an effect: world income, foreign competition and industry potential product.

ASSUNTO(S)

elasticidade do cambio exchange rate elasticities mecanismo corretor de erros exportation exportacao error correction mechanism autoregressive distributed lags defasagens auto-regressivas distribuidas

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

Documentos Relacionados