Equações de oferta e demanda por exportações do Brasil: um estudo comparativo do setor de madeira e móveis

AUTOR(ES)

Argos Unildo Mazzotti

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

This dissertation is about the estimation of export equations for both Brazilian total economy and Brazilian wood-furniture sector, using quarterly data, from 1985 to 2006. The econometric procedures use the Johansens co-integration concept associated to an error-correction model. Special attention is dedicated to a possible problem of instability in parameters resulting, mainly, from the impact of the opening trade in the beginning of the period, from changes associated to the Real Plan and from the raise of the export prices in the end of the period. One of the most interesting aspects, related to the Brazilian trade opening, occurs in the export demand where the foreign income starts to have relatively higher importance along the period when compared to the exchange rate. This change is present in the ambit of the wood-furniture sector, but it also stands out for the aggregate. Another important result, now related to export supply, shows the relation of significance between the main sources of exporters profit export prices and exchange rate. In the case of export prices, both the sector and the aggregate show increase of influence of this variable in the final part of the estimation period. However, the exchange rate shows increase in importance for the sector and decrease for the aggregate. In the short run estimations, a J curve stands out in both supply and demand equations. Besides, the demand also shows short run impacts on the external income variable for the aggregate and sector as well. In the short run supply equations there is a significant shock in the aggregate export prices and a relevant impact on the sector occurs in the exchange rate. It is still noticed that adjustments on the long run disequilibrium are faster in aggregate than in sector.

ASSUNTO(S)

export supply equations exportação error-correction mechanism madeira e mobiliário export export demand equations cointegration equações de demanda por exportações economia co-integração mecanismo de correção de erros equações de oferta de exportações wood and furniture

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