Economic effects of climate change´s scenarios in Brazilian agriculture: an exercise from a computable general equilibrium model / Efeitos econômicos de cenários de mudança climática na agricultura brasileira: um exercício a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

AUTOR(ES)

Gustavo Inácio de Moraes

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

The outlook of climate change is especially important for the farming sector, an economic activity where connection with natural cycles is strong. The objective of this thesis is to calculate economic impacts in scenarios of climatic change for Brazilian agriculture. Effect on appropriate areas of eight harvests (beans, maize, soy, cotton, rice, sugar cane, cassava and coffee) are evaluated through a model of computable general balance, the TERM-BR, and scenes available from EMBRAPA, based on the IPCC. Two scenarios are simulated with divergent perspectives, one for 2020 disrespecting social and economic changes (2020/A2) and another one for 2070 with social and economic adaptations, in the projections of the IPCC (2070/B2). For 2020/A2 the negative effect are concentrated in the regions Northeast, consequence of the several dry climate and production profile of the region, beyond the states of Mato Grosso and South´s Mato Grosso, outcome of impacts on the appropriate region for the soy. In antagonism, in this simulation, the Southeastern region is benefited; therefore the product sugar cane registers increases of income under soft climatic change scenario. The net result points with respect to a small reduction of the economic activity (GDP), rise of prices of foodstuffs and regional migration of the labor force, from Northeast and Center West for the other regions. For as the scenario, 2070/B2, the Northeast and the Center West are the affected regions also. However, the positive results for the economic activity in the Southeastern region are lesser, outcome of the smaller beneficial shock on the sugar cane in more severe scenarios of climate change. In this sense it has a national decline of the economic activity to the previous simulation. In labor market remain the trends of migration of the labor force from Northeast and Center West regions for the other regions. Nevertheless, this migration is intense, proportionally, in most qualified persons of the labor market. The climate change, in the lack of measures of intense adaptation and mitigation can represent a risk for historically underdeveloped regions or regions of recent development. In special, shows that the economic impacts in the Brazilian territory are heterogeneous between the great regions and the states that compose it.

ASSUNTO(S)

agriculture economic impacts agricultura - impactos econômicos climate change. mudança climática

Documentos Relacionados

• Impactos econômicos de políticas de mudança climática na economia brasileira: um estudo a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável
• SIMULATING POTATO TUBER YIELD IN CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
• SIMULATING GRAIN YIELD OF IRRIGATED RICE IN CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
• Ganhos de bem-estar e abertura comercial brasileira : um exercício de equilíbrio geral computável
• Impactos Econômicos do Código Florestal Brasileiro: uma discussão à luz de um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral