Economia residencial rural de energia no Brasil com enfoque na lenha.

AUTOR(ES)

Daryl William Brown

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

12/12/2011

RESUMO

The energy mix in Brazil is dominated by petroleum products and renewable energy, including hydroelectric energy and biomass. Energy consumption in the domestic sector follows a similar pattern as the national trend, with a third of energy coming from biomass (mostly wood), a third from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and a third from electricity, the last of which is predominantly from hydroelectric power. The focus of this work is to find the determinants of wood use in the Brazilian domestic energy sector, estimate future energy use trends in that sector, and create a carbon emissions baseline. Ordinary Least Squares was used on the variables of wood use, and the downward and reversing trend in wood consumption is determined to be correlated with fluctuations in urbanization, federal government subsidies on LPG, the consumer price of LPG, and inflation, while PIB/capita, the drought from 2001, and people per household had correlations that were statistically insignificant. The baselines for domestic sector electricity, wood and LPG consumption were found by extrapolating recent consumption trends via univariate auto-regression, predicting an upward trend in electricity consumption, a slight increase in LPG consumption and virtually stagnant wood consumption. Although the calculation methods are quite different, these results roughly coincide with government estimates. The paper closes with a carbon emissions calculation in the wood consumption baseline, for useful comparison for future studies meant to see the affects of exogenous factors that might increase/decrease domestic sector wood consumption.

ASSUNTO(S)

energy domestic sector economia energia lenha rural wood biomass environment carbon emissions time series

Documentos Relacionados

• ESTIMATIVA DO CONSUMO RESIDENCIAL DE LENHA EM UMA PEQUENA COMUNIDADE RURAL DO MUNICÍPIO DE SÃO JOÃO D’ALIANÇA, GO
• Fontes alternativas para energia em complementação a lenha na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Pardo, Brasil
• Influência do tempo de estocagem de lenha de bracatinga na produção de energia.
• Energia, meio ambiente e economia: o Brasil no contexto mundial
• Características e procedência da lenha usada na cocção no Brasil