Dinâmica econômica das flutuações na produção de cana-de-açúcar / Economic dynamics from fluctuations in the Brazilian sugar cane production

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

Since the mid 70s, the Brazilian sugar and ethanol markets have passed through noteworthy changes, leading the country back to the position of number one sugar cane producer in the world. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the whole of shocks in supply (measured by area and yield unexpected variations), in demand (measured by domestic income and exports unexpected variations) and in prices on the recent developments in the sugar cane production. During most of the analyzed period, both sugar ðanol - S&E sector was under government intervention, with quotadriven productions, fixed prices and regulated exports. In the mid-80s, sugar cane expansion was driven by governmental incentives to improve both the ethanol production and consumption. With the end of the governmental intervention over the S&E sector, a new model for establishing sugar cane prices has, since 1999, distributed the profits gathered in the sugar and ethanol trade throughout the productive chain. The proposed economic model is an adapted version of the representations used in Alves (2006) and Spolador (2006) and is based on the insights of Blanchard &Quah (1989) to analyze the composition of product variations. The unit root tests were performed following Dickey &Pantula (1987) methodology and the co-integration tests, Johansens (1989). The model was estimated as a structural Auto-Regressive Vector, with innovations calculated through the Bernanke-Sims decomposition. The results confirmed the assumptions about the areas exogeneity and the yield, cane price, average S&E price and exports endogeneity. The area exhibited a non-sensitive response to shocks in other variables. Though presenting a generally positive response, the yield showed a low sensitivity to non-reflexive shocks. Both prices (from raw material and final products) also presented low sensitivity to shocks in other variables. The export was the most sensitive variable, with accumulated elasticity in response to shocks in sugar cane price and in domestic income higher than the unit. Supply and price shocks had a permanent impact over cane production, but demand shocks had a transitory effect over it. However, the accumulated elasticity from supply shocks over production converged to values above the unit, while the ones from price shocks converged to 0.25. Area and yield variance decompositions led to the conclusion that innovations coming from the supply side are the most important in explaining the fluctuations in the sugar cane production in Brazil.

ASSUNTO(S)

sugar and ethanol sector indústria sucro-alcooleira. time series. sugar cane cana-de-açúcar análise de séries temporais

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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