Development of a feasibility model for a High Speed Rail (HSR) line project

AUTOR(ES)

Garcia, Reinaldo C., Goulart, Aline, Veiga, Thais da C., Cunha, Luiza V. da, Vilarindo, Marcos

FONTE

J. Transp. Lit.

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2016-06

RESUMO

AbstractThe building costs of a High Speed Rail line project besides its acquisition, operation and maintenance ones, are very high making it an expensive option of transportation. The implementation of a HSR project must then be evaluated, determining its costs and revenues, in order to justify its viability. This research proposes a model to evaluate the feasibility of a HSR line. The model considers the cases where the demand and the costs have uncertainties, assuming also that the initial evaluated demand can be overestimated. A detailed explanation of the proposed model is given and empirical results for the Brazilian HSR project are discussed. The results show that such a project is a very risky one, and it must be carefully discussed before it becomes a reality.

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