Determinantes da competitividade das exportações brasileiras agregadas e setoriais: uma análise VAR (2000-2006).

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

The objective of this dissertation is to examine some of main determinants of the Brazilian exporting sectors? competitiveness that have been pointed out by the theoretical and empirical literature. There are many determinants considered by the international trade theories; many of those theories suggest that there is a link between productivity and exports, although this doesn?t validate any particular theory. Moreover, it can be inquired the role played by the labor productivity regarding the recent performance of the Brazilian exporting sector and its relative importance in relation to others determinants commonly identified with export demand and/or supply, specially the real exchange rate. Answering those questions is also the basic objective of the current study. In order to reach this goal, the exports and others possible variables for establishing a cointegration relation are submitted to tests whose purpose is checking whether cointegration is consistent with the data available in time series. In order to include the labor productivity as explicative variable of the exports in both aggregation levels, two different date bases were used. The real exchange rate was also another variable present in both levels. The utilization of the installed capacity, which is traditionally understood as a proxy of the domestic activity level, and the world imports, as a proxy of the foreign income, are additionally included in the total exports? model. In considering the sets of data available, those specifications are the best ones to including the labor productivity that unfortunately is rarely identified by the empirical studies applied in Brazil, except in the most recent ones that take the firm as unity of analysis. Subsequently to the tests of unit roots (either the conventional tests or the ones that take into account the possibility of a sole structural break), if integrated processes of first order are consistent with the data, the Engle-Granger methodology, the Johansen methodology, the Gregory-Hansen test, and, even the simple two step estimator (S2S) can be undertaken.

ASSUNTO(S)

economia internacional comércio internacional setores industriais international trade co-integração brazilian exports manufacturing sectors exportações brasileiras cointegration

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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