Decisões de investimento em condições de incerteza: uma abordagem com opções reais equivalentes / Investment decisions under uncertainty conditions: a view upon equivalent real options

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

Considering the increasing level of competition of many markets, companies that take wrong decision choices for their businesses may compromise its performances. Therefore, in order to reach better performance than its competitors, the decisions should not be based on intuition and unnecessary losses become unacceptable. Under the financial scope, the appropriate analysis of investment projects is essential to promote a solidified growth of a firm. When asked about the implementation of some project, managers that make use of different methods of investment analysis tend to take the same decision choice. However, when the situation involves a variety of investment projects, the usual methods of investment analysis can imply in different results, disturbing the decision process. When any investment project considered apparently more economically attractive is put up front in any companys choice, the ones that are taking this decision may suffer financial losses due to some important issues not considered by the usually methods used. By using a critical analysis of deterministic methods, methods that assess the uncertainty and methods that consider some flexibility of projects, it becomes of major importance to apply some decision-making process to compare the possibilities of investment projects. So, some arrangements in the usual methods of analysis of investment were presented in order to reach more efficient goals. That is the reason that this research development the concepts of equivalent net present value (ENPV) and equivalent internal rate of return (EIRR), as deterministic methods used exclusively to the decision making with a variety of investment projects. After this, with the flexibility of this concepts, it is established the concept of equivalent real options as it main tool to make a parameterized comparison of investment projects. To prove its contribution to the economic analysis techniques, it was set an application of the proposed methodology and its results were compared to the ones obtained if the traditional methods. Therefore, this paper work got the conclusion that, if analyzed investment projects under the same conditions, different tools generate similar results. However, the same parameters and the flexibility given if used Equivalent Real Options adds value to investment and, consequently, to the company.

ASSUNTO(S)

decisões de investimento equivalent internal rate of return (eirr) equivalent real options uncertainty flexibilidade valor presente líquido equivalente (vple) investment decision opções reais equivalentes taxa interna de retorno equivalente (tire) equivalent net present value (enpv) flexibility incerteza

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