Crescimento regional : proposta e análise aplicada ao Brasil

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

This thesis proposes a new approach for Brazilian regional analysis. This study develops a basic dynamic growth model with factors mobility and its extensions in order to endogenize the total factor productivity (TFP) based on recent studies of economic development. The first chapter develops the basic model for regional growth analysis. It is considered an economy with no government and exogenous total factors productivity growth. This model is based on an adapted version of Hall e Jones (1999) with labor and capital mobility and exogenous productivity growth. Computational simulations indicate the key factor to explain the result lies in the huge difference of aggregate productivity across regions (exogenous). Even through the richest regions present higher endowments of factors, their higher TFP keeps capital and labor productivity rates higher than in poorer regions. The next chapter inserts government in the economy through fiscal policy: taxing and funding (regional transfers) current expenditures, capital and infrastructure projects. The contribution of this work is specifying government investments in infrastructure affecting capital accumulation and total factors productivity (TFP) growth. This effect on TFP has a diminishing return in relation to the relative amount of infrastructure to GDP. Simulations present the dynamics of main macroeconomic variable and the efficiency of fiscal policy in reaching regional growth and convergence in Brazil. It is showed the paradigm of fiscal transferences in Brazil being incapable to promote a regional convergence process without implying losses for national economy is not correct. However, the necessary condition is to change public expenses profile increasing investment ratio in the government total expenditures. The third chapter endogenizes completely the TFP through human capital profile following Vandenbussche, Aghion and Meghir (2006). The main hypothesis of this study is that innovation requires intensively highly educated labor factor, influencing the level of productivity. Complementary, unskilled labor is important for the activities of imitation and its influence on productivity reduces as economy approaches to the technological frontier. This work shows that the role of government investing in education promotes positive results (greater than the negative effect of taxation) only for the richest regions in short run. Thus, this chapter speculates the existence of a poverty trap over the poorest regions for growth enhancing policies based on education. This fact requires State intervention in order to provide funds for education investments over the poorest regions. In addition, the results indicates that investments in primary and secondary education is the best educational policy for all regions in Brazil and the richest regions have a comparative advantage in concentrating tertiary education investments of the Federal Government.

ASSUNTO(S)

crescimento regional capital humano produtividade economia infra-estrutura

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