Convergência de renda per capita entre os estados brasileiros de 1939 a 2004

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

In the literature an extensive debate exists on the convergence of income across countries or regions. In this thesis, we use four different methods to study income convergence across the Brazilian States for the period of 1939 through 2004. Separate analyses are performed of the periods before and after the so-called economic miracle, treated as the period 1968-1973. Cross-section estimates of β-convergence and σ- convergence are carried out. To check for robustness, small perturbations are introduced to the initial and terminal years. Despite a substantial increase in concentration of income during the period of economic miracle, clear trends of β- convergence and σ-convergence of income are found for the period after economic miracle. Markov Chains for the Brazilian States are constructed and the Markov assumptions tested statistically. The transition matrices did not exhibit statistical stability. This technique is thus shown to be inappropriate for the Brazilian case. Next, the change over time in income inequality across states is decomposed into three components representing β-convergence, σ-convergence and reranking (leapfrogging). Reranking was shown to have only a minimal effect on the changes in Gini. Finally, we use the dynamic panel-data methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) to establish the existence of two convergence clubs for the period after the economic miracle, 1974- 2004, one based in the relatively poor north and northeast regions, the other in the center-south.

ASSUNTO(S)

crescimento economia economia regional convergência per capta cadeias de markov

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