Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

30/03/2011

RESUMO

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

ASSUNTO(S)

coincident and leading indicators business cycles common features latent factor analysis ciclos econômicos

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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