Conflict opportunity - forecasting models. / Oportunidades de conflito de tráfego: modelos de previsão.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

The purpose of this work is, through the use of mathematic models, to estimate the level of risk using the concept of traffic conflict opportunity at signalized and unsignalized intersections. The concept of traffic conflict opportunity has been proposed to measure the level of risk, and it is considered as an alternative measure of traffic safety, potentially more useful than the traditional safety measures like traffic accident data or traffic conflict technique. The traffic conflict opportunity models do not require complex field data, only the operational data of the intersection as traffic counts and control parameters are needed. This work presents and analyses other authors studies about this subject, based on which were proposed alternative methods for their formulations. Points such as the safety analysis of the intergreen period using traffic conflict opportunity, not found in those studies, were treated in this work, as well as the pedestrian crossing risk in various situations (in the revised studies, only the analysis of pedestrian crossing risk due to a left turn movement facing an opposing flow was found). In order to test methodologies and to collect field data, it was performed a pilot study at a real intersection. The pilot study allowed to define the goals and the means needed to carry out a field validation by qualitative diagnostic analysis.

ASSUNTO(S)

circulação de pedestres models (forecasting) traffic engineering pedestrians traffic safety engenharia de tráfego modelos (previsão) segurança de tráfego

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