Avaliação do novo modelo global do CPTEC/INPE na previsão numérica de tempo de fenômenos tropicais / Evaluation of the new global model of CPTEC/INPE in the numeric weather prediction of tropical phenomena

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

It is important the study of meteorological phenomena that affect the tropical area as the squall lines, main responsible for the precipitation for this area and the "friagens" that cause decrease of the temperature. In this work the capacity of the model was evaluated in forecasting such phenomena, using different horizontal and vertical resolutions, using the semilagrangian integration method, with normal and reduced grid. The objective of validating the different configurations of MCGA/CPTEC was reached, using the forecast for the two meteorological phenomena mentioned previously, in the area of great world importance, the Amazonian Region. The accomplished experiments were divided in three groups, maintaining an experiment as control and varying the configurations of the other two experiments. In this way the impact of the increase of the resolutions was verified for each treated variable, besides the calculation of the statistical indexes. Through the obtained results it was possible to verify that for the forecast of formation of the squall lines, the horizontal and vertical resolution as well as the integration method and better initial and boundary conditions are important factors in the determination of the squall lines evolution. The forecast done by the model of CPTEC is satisfactory for the events of "friagens", happened in the Amazonian Region, independently of kind the used configuration, in this case the initial conditions are very important.

ASSUNTO(S)

"friagem" modelo global do cptec fenômenos tropicais previsão numérica de tempo friagem squall lines numeric weather prediction cptec golbal model tropical phenomena linha de instabilidade

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