Avaliação do impacto da variabilidade/mudanças climáticas sobre Euschistus heros, Telenomus podisi e ferrugem asiática na soja, no Região Sul do Brasil / Risk assessment of variability/climate change on the Euschistus heros, Telenomus podisi and asian soybean rust of soybean, in the southern region of Brazil

Vanessa Vitoria Chevarria

Brazil is the second largest soybean producer, however, biotic and abiotic factors affect the crop, causing serious damage, with significant economic impact. Among these problems, Euschistus heros and asian soybean rust. For biological control of the insects, the parasitoid Telenomus podisi has been described as one of the potential agents in MIP programs. The daily average temperature and precipitation are both environmental factors that affect the soybean crop, and its associated organisms. Thus, the study aimed to: 1) determine ranges of favorability for the development of E. heros and T. podisi; 2) simulate the number of generations of insects and severity of asian soybean rust on soybeans in municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, historical weather scenarios, given the cycle of the cultivar, sowing date and time of pest and disease detection and 3) assess the potential impacts of climate change on these organisms by mapping risk in future climate scenarios projected by the IPCC global models (average of 15 models). The study considered two approaches for simulating the effect of climate on the development of these organisms. It was simulated the variability of climate effects with data from annual time series of climate on the development of organisms through the integration of bioclimatic models and simulation of culture, considering the time of sowing, time of detection and the cultivation cycle. In the second approach bioclimatic models were integrated into geographic information systems with future climate data, generating maps of favorability for the occurrence of insects and disease severity. E. heros showed better development at 26º to 28ºC, high number of generations in the early sowing date, at medium maturity cultivar and time of detection in R1, ranging from two to three generations. The temperature most favorable to the development of T. podisi was 20º to 28º C, the number of generations ranged from three to six, the most found in the earlier planting. For asian soybean rust, no significant trend of variation in levels of severity depending on the parameters. The climate scenarios projected for the future indicate an increase in the area favored the establishment of E. heros and T. podisi and severity of asian soybean rust in relation to the current climate, directly related to potential changes in average conditions of temperature and precipitation as noted by the IPCC scenarios.

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