Análise qualitativa de riscos de projetos suportada pela teoria dos jogos / Project risk assessment supported by game theory

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

14/12/2010

RESUMO

Since 1944, when it was published the first book by John Von Neumann about Game Theory, the application field is growing very fast year after year. At the begin the theory was widely used to predict Macroeconomics behavior but nowadays there are several studies in different areas as biology, sociology and computational engineering. John Maynard Smith in the book Evolution and the Theory of Games and Robert Trivers in the paper The Evolution of Reciprocal Altruism were successful to use the Game Theory concept to explain the individuals behavior in conflict situations when they are living in society. This thesis aims to propose a new application of the Game Theory inside the Organizational environment using the same concept adopted by Smith and Trivers, but using a project team as studied society. In order to lead a successful project is indispensable to understand the motivation and interests of each team component, the goal of this thesis is to provide a method to identify and measure the project cooperation characteristics. The method consists in a department targets and project decisions analysis and than the utilization of the Game Theory to check the predisposition for cooperation, allowing the project manager to plan countermeasures to avoid those problems when cooperation behavior is not detected. The method includes also a way to balance department targets when it is allowed or when there is no defined targets. The proposed method was applied in a Multinational company of the Automobile industry and the results presented in this thesis show very clear conflict situations incited by departments targets which could be detected and controlled by the proposed method

ASSUNTO(S)

projetos - avaliação avaliação de riscos teoria dos jogos projects risk assessment game theory

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