Análise de risco em investimentos imobiliários por simulação




This work consists of modeling the cash flow which comes from the real estate market, and to analyze economic viability using the risk analysis proposed by HERTZ (1964), using a logicalmathematical simulation through the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo logical simulation method can help to predict and quantify risk in real estate investments. By creating thousands of combinations from the relevant factors that influence the final result of the investment, and considering the probability curves available, it is possible to obtain a distribution of the variables that represent the behavior of the model. A simulation model will be created based upon the monetary income and outgoings of cash flow, focusing on the elements relative to monetary investment resulting from sales. The calibration of the proposed model is to be carried out as a case study, observing that, as the results are obtained through the simulation, they correspond to those seen in real life. For this to be viable, historical data has been used, which comes from a real estate deal, which has already taken place on the coast of the state of Santa Catarina. The model has been developed on a spreadsheet where 1,500 run were generated using variations in real data as a parameter.


avaliação de riscos engenharia civil engenharia civil modelagem computacional investimentos imobiliarios - simulação por computador

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