Análise da evolução da indústria brasileira de celulose no período de 1980 a 2005 / Analysis of the evolution of Brazilian pulp industry from 1980 to 2005

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

The present dissertation analyses the evolution of Brazilian pulp industry from 1980 to 2005, paying attention to three specific objectives: (1) analysis of the Brazilian pulp industry?s structure and performance, evaluating its production, exports and production costs. Besides that, the dissertation discusses the reorganization of this industry since the 1980s and highlights the changes that happened and their impacts on the sectors competitiveness; (2) Identify the researches and technological innovations that took place in forest and industrial areas, and emphasize their possible impacts on the competitiveness of Brazilian pulp industry; (3) analyze the evolution of the Brazilian pulp exports, elaborating an econometric model to evidence the main determinants of supply and demand for these exports. In relation to the first objective of this work, the structure and performance of the Brazilian pulp industry were analyzed through the following variables: production, export, production costs, number of enterprises, and also concentration indexes. It was evidenced that Brazil is increasing its market share in pulp exports. The increase of exports is mainly due to production cost advantages what associate to innovations in forest and industrial areas. To analyze the second objective of this dissertation, primary data, collected through questionnaires, and literature review were used to realize a survey of the main technological innovations that had occurred in silviculture and in Brazilian pulp production. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s and during the six first years of the 2000s, researches occurred in different intensities, in the distinct stages of industrial and forest production. The primary data organized in tables and graphs, as well as analyzed by Wilconox test, highlight the improves in the technological innovations in the stages of the production process what brought significant increases of productivity in silviculture and in the pulp industrial production, causing the reduction of pulp production cost. The latter enlarged sectors profitability, causing its expansion. In the third objective, supply and demand equations for pulp exports were run for data ranging from 1980 to 2005. Regarding to the pulp supply, Brazilian exported pulp price and lagged exports were statistically significant at 20% and 1% level, respectively. The production cost did not show statistically significant, but it had the expected signal. The price elasticity of Brazilian pulp supply was 0.4, so it is inelastic in relation to its price. The demand elasticity price founded was -0.69, indicating the quantity of Brazilian pulp demanded is inelastic in relation to its price. Meanwhile, the elasticity of Brazilian pulp demanded quantity in relation to international demand of this product was 2.17, indicating the demanded quantity of Brazilian pulp is elastic in relation to the international demand of the product.

ASSUNTO(S)

econometria technological innovations exportação inovações tecnológicas indústria de celulose econometric model pulp exportation

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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