About the construction of the economic policy: a discussion about the determinatives of the real interest rates in Brazil / Sobre a construção da política econômica: uma discussão dos determinantes da taxa real de juros no Brasil

AUTOR(ES)

Emilio Chernavsky

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

The basic real interest rates which have been in place in Brazil throughout a period of almost fifteen years remained at extremely high levels when compared against those rates historically valid in the country or when placed into an international perspective. This work has tried to proceed to a systematic analysis of the main theories suggested by the economic orthodoxy, which aim to explain the exceptional situation of Brazil, examining the empirical results such theories have obtained. In a general manner, the analysis has not found satisfactory evidences able to support the relevance or even in some cases the validity for the examined theories, which have clearly demonstrated being both theoretically and empirically insufficient to explain the maintenance of the levels of real interest rates in Brazil. Thus, the conclusions and policy recommendations built from such theories whose capacity of fitting to the Brazilian case was challenged in this work must be taken with particular care. By the other hand, it was performed an analysis on the theoretical and empirical grounds of the manner in which monetary policy was conducted in the country, in order to verify whether the exceptional Brazilian real interest rates could not be originated from the requirements imposed by a policy whose main declared target consists in maintaining the control of the inflation level. After examining those fundamentals, no elements on the monetary policy conduction were found which could justify the peculiarity of those rates. As the orthodox approach turned to be globally unsatisfactory as a way of explaining the Brazilian real interest rates, it was introduced an alternative approach, based on the economics of conventions, which showed itself as being able at first to provide useful insights to help to solve the question.

ASSUNTO(S)

política monetária monetary policy taxa de juros interest rate

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