Abordagem da balança comercial: determinando os efeitos total e parcial de uma variação da taxa dde câmbio sobre a balança comercial a partir da integração das abordagens das elasticidades e de absorção.
Fábio Barbosa da Silva
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
The purpose of this dissertation is to discuss the main ways by which the exchange rate can affect the Trade Balance. In other words, this work tries to extract the direct and indirect effects of a variation of the exchange rate over the trade balance. In order to archive this purpose, we integrate two models that have different focus which common objective is the study of the trade balance. The two models are: i) the Elasticities Approach; ii) the Absorption Approach. The first approach, based on microeconomics aspects, defends that a rise in the exchange rate improves the trade balance by affecting the relative prices of the economy, mainly the Terms-of-Trade, occasioning a substitution effect between the domestics and foreign products, favoring the first over the last one. The second one that focus on typical macroeconomics aggregates of the Keynesian analysis, states that the trade balance is essentially given by the gap between the income and absorption levels or, alternatively, by the gap between the saving and investments levels. From the integration of these two models will be demonstrated that the total and partial effects of a variation of the exchange rate over the trade balance are conditioned by: i) the magnitudes of the foreign multiplier, the marginal propensity to absorb and import; ii) the exchange rate elasticities of the supply and demand of exports and import; iii) the saving and investment interest rate elasticities; iv) the relation between the interest and exchange rates which, by itself, are conditioned by the economys level of the opening.
- A taxa de câmbio e os ajustes no saldo da balança comercial brasileira: uma análise setorial da Curva J
- Criação e destruição de emprego na indústria e os efeitos do câmbio e da abertura comercial: o caso da indústria gaúcha nos anos 1990
- Análise do fluxo de água virtual: uma abordagem a partir da balança comercial de Mato Grosso do Sul
- Efeitos da taxa de câmbio sobre os preços internacionais da celulose e do papel brasileiro
- Choques na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira: evidências da Curva J entre 1994 e 2007