âBALANÃO HÃDRICO ATUAL E SIMULAÃÃES DE CENÃRIOS CLIMÃTICOS FUTUROS PARA O MUNICÃPIO DE TAUBATÃâ

AUTOR(ES)

ANDRÃA SANAE HORIKOSHI

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

Variance affects the entire natural ecosystem such as the agriculture production, animals and, mainly, the anthropogenic activities. Agriculture shows the highest risks due to the dry seasons and the frost events and, mainly, water scarcity. The aim of this present paper is to make a water balance to the Taubatà town (1992-2005), and make a study of future simulations climate scenarios (2010 -2099) with some analysis of how these future climate scenarios will affect the water availableness. We have used the Thornthwaite-Mather method (1995) to estimate the climatologically water balance to Taubatà town. We have used precipitation and temperature data from the year of 1950 until 2099 and that data were adjusted by straight line equation of line regress obtained by graphic of period between 1992 and 2005, and with corrected data, we estimated the potential evapotranspiration rates by Thornthwaite method (1948), and from these future water balances in the scenarios. Comparing the period (1992-2005) with (2070-2099),one concludes that for the A2 scenario: the temperature will increase in 3,7 ÂC and the precipitation will increase in 150 mm; in the B2 scenario the temperature will increase in 2,4 ÂC and the precipitation will increase in 88 mm; with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration will increase in 429 mm in the scenario A2 and 251 mm in the B2 scenario, causing an increase in the deficit of 77 mm in the scenario A2 and 54 mm in the B2 scenario, and diminishing the water excess in 202 mm in the scenario A2 and 109 mm in the B2 scenario. If the superficial caption increases in 50%, the Taubatà town will have water availableness problems from the 2016 in the A2 scenario and from the 2017 in the B2 scenario.

ASSUNTO(S)

future simulate scenarios precipitaÃÃo precipitation hidrogeografia disponibilidade hÃdrica water availableness simulaÃÃo de cenÃrios futuros

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